Possible charges: Securities, mail, and wire fraud.

The PR headache: AIG has received almost $200 billion in government bailouts, not to mention death threats to its executives, for doling out $218 million in bonuses. 

The investigation: AIG faces probes by the FBI, the SEC, and the New York attorney general.

Jury deliberation: “Do you think Sullivan truly understood the exposure his London office had to credit-default swaps? It was the height of gambling, but not illegal.” ... “Prosecutors are likely to find something. It may be malfeasance, but not criminal.”
Odds of prosecution: 3:2

The verdict: Joseph Cassano, who ran AIG’s financial-products division, is more vulnerable than Sullivan, whose tenure was relatively brief.