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Retail Darwinism

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"You always expect in Paris that you're going to be really wowed," says David Rubenstein, the buyer for Jeffrey, a high-end, trendsetting boutique in New York and Atlanta. "In Paris, we found lots of gorgeous things, but we were extra discerning and as cautious as we could be."

Howard Aubrey, president of the Isabella Company, which markets and distributes lines for several European designers, says he's noticed a similar phenomenon among his customers. "Even if [buyers] love, love, love a collection, they're not going to buy more than they intended to. They're sticking to their guns."

That doesn't mean that retailers are necessarily retreating to black pants and other wardrobe staples. In fact, some specialty stores are doing exactly the opposite. "If the customer wants [black pants], she'll go to a Gap," Hoffman says. Mincarelli says he's noticed this tendency in his own buying habits. "I'm not buying another blazer unless I get a hole in the elbow."

But a savvy buyer can override even that kind of resolve. "I know one thing—I will not walk into Bergdorf Goodman this year," says Mincarelli. "Because if I see the winter coat that captures my imagination, I'm not going to be able to deny myself. And Bergdorf counts on those customers who cannot deny themselves."

It's all about wowing the customer, says Rubenstein. But these days, the price point is a larger consideration. "In the past, we might have bought an amazing item for $7,000 or $8,000 retail. Now we're not buying those kinds of items—we're focusing on more affordable," he says.

Retailers are also reducing their risks by selecting from collections rather than buying entire lines, just as a music shopper might select songs on iTunes. "You pick the hit or two that you want and don't buy the whole album," Mincarelli says. "It's really hard for designers, because the whole collection doesn't come through."

Hoffman says this isn't a new phenomenon with the retailers she represents. "If a piece doesn't stand on its own, then there's real reason to consider not buying it." But the choosiness has become even more pronounced during the credit crisis.

The effects of this crisis are still trickling down on consumers. The Reuters/University of Michigan index of consumer confidence suffered the largest drop this month in the history of the index, and retail analysis firm TNS Retail Forward are predicting the worst holiday shopping season since 1991.

To Mincarelli, this type of environment is the best test of a buyer's skill: "Good buyers are going to max this out," he says. "Talent comes to the fore in hard times."


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