They haven't won a world series in 100 years, have had only nine winning seasons since 1980, and seem maddeningly prone to bad luck. But the Chicago Cubs are one of the most beloved teams in baseball, and ever since Sam Zell, whose Tribune Co. owns the team, said he'd sell it, boardrooms and locker rooms have buzzed with two questions: Who will buy the team? And for how much? Zell wants to sell the Cubs and Wrigley Field separately and hopes to get $1 billion total from the transactions. However, because the Tribune Co. doesn't break out the team's results in its financial statements, it's hard to know just how much the Cubs are worth. We asked a number of experts, including analysts in the Chicago office of Anderson Economic Group, a financial consultancy, to help us arrive at a figure.

Never Mind Profits

Several factors make sticking to the top line the best approach for valuing a baseball team. Because Major League Baseball requires teams to share part of their net local revenue to help make poorer teams more competitive, most teams drum up expenses where they can. A.E.G. estimates the Cubs' 2007 revenues at $200 million, which would include ticket sales, concessions, and advertising. Sports teams generally sell for two to three times their annual revenue. A.E.G. suggests using a multiple of 2.5 for the Cubs, yielding a starting value of $500 million.

Base value: $500 million

Could They Be a Contender?

How much does a team's win-loss record matter? Analyzing sales of European soccer teams, A.E.G. researcher Ilhan Geckil found that the market value of a team may not be overly affected by any particular year's results. But the value is clearly influenced by whether the team is consistently in the running for championships. In recent years, the Cubs "have changed from being a mascot and a nostalgia trip to being an actual contender," says A.E.G. principal Patrick Anderson. Four of their paltry nine winning seasons since 1980 have come since 2000; last year, they won their division (but were then swept by the Arizona Diamondbacks in the playoffs). The team's recent success is widely attributed to some aggressive moves, including bringing in Lou Piniella as manager, as well as signing outfielder Alfonso Soriano to an eight-year, $136 million contract and pitcher Carlos Zambrano to a five-year, $91.5 million deal. A.E.G. research suggests a team's value can rise by 20 to 30 percent if it's a bona fide contender. Anderson gives the Cubs a 20 percent premium, adding another $100 million to the value.

Subtotal: $500 million + $100 million = $600 million

Don't Forget Bill Murray

The Cubs are an iconic franchise, one that sports banker Sal Galatioto likens to "beachfront property." Peter Keating, a contributing editor at ESPN the Magazine, says, "Owning a sports franchise is like owning the Mona Lisa." No one is ruling out the possibility of a bidding war for the team. Among those thought to be potential buyers are Dallas Mavericks owner Mark Cuban, private equity bigwig John Canning Jr., Phoenix Suns owner Jerry Colangelo, and possibly even actor Bill Murray. University of Michigan professor Rodney Fort thinks the intangibles that come with owning a team, like boosting an owner's personal celebrity, can add anywhere from 17 to 35 percent to the price tag. A.E.G. is more cautious, though, throwing in an extra $6 million for intangibles.

Subtotal: $600 million + $6 million = $606 million

The Bottom Line

A rational buyer should offer $606 million. But sports fans—and sports owners—aren't always rational. Bids could approach the $660 million record set in 2002 for the Boston Red Sox.

Possible sale price: $650 million or more