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The $59 Million Arm

Is Dice-K earning his keep? On the eve of the postseason, we analyze the Red Sox’ investment in Japan’s greatest pitcher.

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Daisuke Matsuzaka

When the Boston Red Sox pursued pitcher Daisuke Matsuzaka last fall, the team was required to pay the Seibu Lions $51 million up front just for the right to negotiate with their ace starter. Then the Sox had to compensate Matsuzaka himself, with a six-year, $52 million contract and a $2 million signing bonus. That means that for just year one, the Red Sox have put up $59 million—nearly 10 percent of the team’s estimated value. And they can’t have expected Matsuzaka to help them sell more tickets; every game at Fenway was already sold out. Luckily for the Sox, a star player can affect a team’s revenue in many ways. Here, a look at the top five—and how Dice-K is paying off so far.

Wins
Four-fifths of the way through the season (in mid-August), Matsuzaka was keeping pace with preseason projections that he would be worth five extra wins to his new team. In a tight American League East divisional race, those victories—worth about $1.6 million apiece, according to a complicated formula devised by baseball statistician Nate Silver—could increase the Red Sox’ playoff chances by about 20 percent.
Value: $8 million

Merchandise
There’s no question that a lot of Red Sox caps and jerseys were sold in Japan this year, but not much of that money will find its way back to Boston. That’s because the Sox hold on to the retail markup only for merchandise sold at Fenway and in their local boutiques. The licensing revenue—by far the majority of earnings from merchandise sales—is shared with Major League Baseball’s 29 other franchises.
Value: up to $1 million

Television
When Hideki Matsui joined the Yankees in 2003, M.L.B. struck a $275 million TV deal with three Japanese networks. Matsuzaka’s presence will strengthen the league’s hand when it renegotiates that contract in 2009. But since revenue from national and international TV deals is distributed evenly among M.L.B. franchises, Boston would have gotten that money even if Dice-K had signed with the Tampa Bay Devil Rays.
Value: $0

Buzz
There’s more money for the team to make in Tewksbury than in Tokyo. “Matsuzaka’s main contribution to the Red Sox is keeping them a cachet property in New England, so buzz is maintained,” says Smith College sports economist Andrew Zimbalist. That could pay off in bigger ratings (and therefore more ad dollars) on the Sox-centric New England Sports Network, of which the team’s investors own 80 percent.
Value: $2 million

Postseason
In 2004, when the Sox won the World Series in four games (only two at home), the resulting extra revenue netted the team $30 million more than it made during its non-playoff season two years earlier, according to Forbes. This year, a seven-game championship series could be worth as much as $64 million, estimates Silver. In other words, if Matsuzaka can help deliver one, he could become profitable right away.
Value: up to $64 million


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