Almost from the day it opened in 1959, the Four Seasons restaurant has drawn New York City’s political and business elite, especially at lunch. Henry Kissinger is a regular, as are Blackstone chief Stephen Schwarzman, Barry Diller, and Rupert Murdoch. A few diners, like former Citigroup chief Sandy Weill, keep a “negative reservation”—their table is waiting every day unless they call to cancel. While the restaurant is not for sale, managing partners Julian Niccolini and Alex von Bidder, who own minority stakes (the Bronfman family owns the majority), say they routinely field inquiries. We asked Dennis Lombardi, executive vice president at WD Partners, a consulting firm based in Columbus, Ohio, for a likely figure.

Dollar For DollarAn industry rule of thumb is that a restaurant typically sells for a price that’s about equal to its annual revenue, and the Four Seasons pulled in about $20 million in 2007. Lombardi suggests a different approach: applying a multiple to the restaurant’s likely cash flow, or roughly its earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization. Subtracting industry-average costs for food, beverages, and labor (about 58 to 63 percent of annual revenue), lease payments (6 to 8 percent), and other outlays (13 percent), Lombardi estimates that the Four Seasons earned about $4 million in 2007. While restaurants have recently sold for seven times their operating profit, Lombardi thinks the current economic climate—with declining consumer spending and expensive credit—would demand a smaller multiple of about 5.5 times, even for the Four Seasons. Apply­ing that to the $4 million figure yields a value of $22 million.
Value From Industry Rules of Thumb: Up to $22 million 

There Can Be Only OneThere’s paradox on the menu: The same factors that make profit growth unlikely at the Four Seasons also enhance the 49-year-old brand’s value. It is literally one of a kind. Another restaurant company may be prepared to ante up just to make the Four Seasons its flagship property. Cash-rich buyers (Hello, sovereign wealth funds! Prince Alwaleed on Line 1!) may be willing to pay a premium to own such a culinary gem. Lombardi thinks the Four Seasons’ allure could push a buyer into a multiple of six and a half to seven times cash flow, which would result in a $26 million to $28 million price tag.
Value as a Trophy Property: Up to $28 million 

Cold Hard NumbersFor a clear-eyed, pragmatic buyer—someone thinking of the purchase strictly as an investment—many of the characteristics that make the Four Seasons unique are turnoffs. For starters, its singular identity suggests the concept would be difficult to replicate. Even opening a second location would be tough: You can’t clone Julian and Alex, and their customer service is part of the reason executives love the place. So a buyer who wanted to improve the financials would have to look to make changes at the sole location on Park Avenue and 52nd Street, and there aren’t a lot of obvious opportunities. While the restaurant may have an open table on occasion, Lombardi points out that it’s pretty much at “practical” capacity (who wants to have a power lunch at 11 a.m.?). Any profit growth is less likely to come from increased traffic than from price increases, yet some appetizers already cost more than $301. A final ­complication: The restaurant’s lease ends in 2015.
Value as Investment Property: Up to $20 million 

The Bottom Line For the right buyer looking to make a high-profile acquisition, bids could approach $30 million. Getting the Bronfman family to hand over the keys is another matter entirely. 

Possible Sale Price: $20 million to $30 million