Hollywood insiders have been waiting for Harvey Weinstein’s bubble to burst ever since he and his brother, Bob, split from Disney in 2005. Despite $1 billion in equity from Goldman Sachs, the Weinsteins have yet to produce a huge hit—except Project Runway, the cult cable-TV show hosted by supermodel Heidi Klum, which features competitions among aspiring fashion designers. This spring, the Weinstein Co. surprised the industry by pulling the show off Bravo and striking a $150 million, five-year licensing deal to air Runway on Lifetime. But if the Weinsteins really want to hit the jackpot, maybe they should consider selling the show. They wouldn’t talk, but we spoke to entertainment bankers­—including Dave Davis of Arpeggio Partners—and production executives to estimate what the Weinsteins might earn by selling.

1. Existing Episodes
The first step in valuing a TV franchise is determining the revenue from home-video sales, second runs, and the syndication of already aired episodes. Project Runway earns an estimated $10 million in DVD sales and about $700,000 in second runs per season. It has yet to be syndicated, but our industry sources believe that it could make about $350,000 a season in syndication fees. The show completes its fifth season this summer, and its first three seasons are already out on DVD. A new owner would probably collect fees from five seasons of syndication and two of second runs and DVD sales. 
Estimated Value: $22.5 million 

2. Future Episodes
The next step is estimating the value of all future episodes, including licensing fees, promotional partnerships, home-video sales, and rerun and syndication fees. Under its new deal with Lifetime, the Weinstein Co. reportedly will earn $800,000 an episode (for a total of 140 future episodes). ­Promotional partnerships have always played a prominent role on the show: On one episode, contestants were required to modernize various ­fashion icons—like Marilyn Monroe—for Tresemmé’s print ads; on another, they were ­ordered ­to design outfits using only materials found in the ­Hershey’s store in Times Square. By the end of season five, the ­Weinsteins were charging major partners like Tresemmé, L’Oréal, and Macy’s as much as $1 million a season to participate. A partnership with Elle recently fell apart after the brothers demanded that the magazine pay $75,000 an episode. The company is now in talks with ­Marie Claire.
Estimated Value: $209 million

3. Brand Value
The final step is assessing a premium (if one is ­warranted) for brand value. Project Runway played a key role in making Bravo a reality-TV powerhouse, but the show’s impending move will serve as a real test of its brand appeal. Not only is it leaving an up-and-coming network for an ailing one, but the show’s producers are also staying at Bravo. And compared with similar programs, Runway hasn’t fared as well in ratings and international spinoffs: America’s Next Top Model has more than 30 international versions; Runway has six. “Project Runway is not terribly differentiated relative to other talent competitions,” says Andy Bateman, C.E.O. of branding consultancy Interbrand. Some investors would put scant value on Runway’s brand, but more entrepreneurial types might be willing to pay a premium of as much as 5 percent.
Estimated Value: Up to $12 million 

The Bottom Line: The Weinsteins haven't said they're selling, but maybe they ought to think about it.

Total Estimated Value of Project Runway: As much as $243.5 million

 NOTE: Future cash flows have been adjusted to reflect present value.