Rubenstein says the “ridiculous” estimates placed on contemporary artworks at auction couldn’t last, citing the case of Rudolf Stingel, an Italian artist who had three paintings at the same Christie’s sale—one of them priced as high as $1.4 million. Stingel’s previous auction record had been $734,400, for an untitled piece of insulation board, sold at Phillips last May. This time, nothing sold.

The primary market, where artists have greater discretion over the pricing of their pieces, is not immune either.

“We definitely think things feel slower, and so do our gallery colleagues,” says Robert Goff, whose gallery, Goff & Rosenthal, opened in 2004. (Goff has also blogged for Portfolio.com.)

Goff & Rosenthal has become more conservative in pricing, and is encouraging artists—even those with successful track records—to avoid raising prices. In the past, works were tagged as high as $60,000 to $80,000, but at the gallery’s current exhibit, featuring objects and paintings by Japanese-born Chiharu Shiota, the prices are more affordable: $2,000 to $10,000. Goff says they resisted the impulse to bump up prices, even after Shiota sold out a show in Belgium last year. “Some artists at other galleries are selling at auction for less than what they’re selling for in the gallery,” he says. “We don’t want this to happen, and we’re young enough that we can set this off at the pass.”

Some observers are more circumspect. Todd Levin, who for 10 years has curated the collection of hedge funder Adam Sender, hasn’t seen diminished bonuses affecting the market yet. “The story is that at the moment there truthfully is no story. It’s wait and see.”

Several dealers point toward a number of upcoming shows as the real tests of the market: the Art Dealers Association of America show in New York in late February; the Armory Show, a leading contemporary-art fair, in Manhattan in March; and the Christie’s, Sotheby’s, and Phillips contemporary sales in May.

If all else fails, says Judith Selkowitz, founder of Art Advisory Services, an art consulting business in Manhattan, “the Russians are still buying. They have plenty of cash. There certainly are still a lot of very wealthy people.”