In fact, as he points out in his study, "The power of the substitution effect was purportedly behind the decision by late night hosts Johnny Carson and David Letterman to cross the 1988 picket lines and resume their programming."

The did so to try to avoid the loss of their viewers to other pursuits, or even to earlier bedtimes, Nickelsburg concluded.

While Nickelsburg notes that the film and TV industry is only the third-most-important source of jobs in the local economy—behind shipping and tourism—Kyser points to the sheer numbers employed in entertainment: about 160,000 people, twice as many as were in the industry in 1988. And they generate $46.8 billion each year in economic activity.

Kyser also points out the possible effect the strike may have on one robust growth sector in a slowing economy: health care. As production employees miss working the hours they need to qualify for health and retirement benefits, that component is also removed from their potential spending.

 "It's definitely a hurtful strike," Kyser says. "It won't kill the economy—there's a lot of non-entertainment industry business out there—but the impact is still there."

Another factor identified by Nickelsburg, is the classically cyclical nature of movie- and TV-production employment, even in the best of times.

"This is not an industry characterized by people working five days a week, 9 to 5," he said. "They work very hard for a while and then they take off for awhile. The studios in November actually hired more people, added staff in response to the first full month of the strike—because they have more movies in pre- and post-production.

"Moreover," Nickelsburg adds, "whenever the strike is over with there'll be movies that will start up and the studios will be scrambling to make sure they've got adequate 2009 offerings. You're talking about folks [for whom] ... this is a cash-flow issue, not an income issue per se."

When the unemployment reports for December are issued on Friday, the economists may be better able to assess the strike damage so far, although the industry's many self-employed workers will not be included in that count. Even so, the debate about the real impact on the local economy is likely to continue.