The writers' strike, which began the day after Halloween in 2007, has always been a story in search of a villain.

Ask the Alliance of Motion Picture and Television Producers for its view, and the foundered settlement negotiations are about a group of spoiled, wealthy writers and their self-involved leadership.

Ask the writers, and it's about a small group of greedy oligarchs (and the conglomerates behind them) who are determined to rob writers of their future through the efforts of their remorseless negotiators.

Confusing as the casting for a villain may be, it's not hard to know who the immediate victims are. They are the film and TV industry's below-the-line workers: the gaffers, grips, electricians, carpenters, unit production managers, and on and on. It's that roll call of names in block letters that crawls up the screen at the end of every movie and TV program.

Warner Bros. laid off three dozen employees yesterday, after having warned more than 1,000 workers that they, too, could potentially lose their jobs. The cause: No movies or TV shows are being made because of the standoff between writers and producers over how to share revenue from reselling their work on the internet and other digital media.

But what has happened to the wider local economy, including the service industries like mom-and-pop dry cleaners, costumers, and caterers? And widening the circle, what has been the effect on the regional economy in Southern California?

As became clear during a hearing last month at L.A. City Hall before the city council's Housing Community and Economic Development committee, the answers depend on whom you're asking. The range is from debilitating to almost negligible. And, of course, each passing strike day worsens the prospect, so today's best guess might seem quite outdated by say, March.

Contrary views are held by two men who are perhaps the region's most credentialed economic savants, which is why the council sought them out to testify (as it turns out, before a demonstrative crowd of writers in matching T-shirts, there to cheer on their own speakers).

Jack Kyser, the veteran chief economist with the L.A. County Economic Development Corp., proffers the pessimistic view. He has publicly forecast a direct cost to Los Angles County's economy of more than $342 million—a figure he bumped up to around $380 million this week when contacted by Portfolio.com.

(This can be compared with the 1988 writers strike of five months' duration, which caused a $500 million loss.)