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Forget traditional pilot-controlled fighter planes. The U.S. military’s future will be increasingly unmanned, and Boeing is maneuvering to be there.
With at least four unmanned aerial vehicles in various stages of development and more concepts on the drawing board, Boeing’s St. Louis-based Integrated Defense Systems division has clearly elevated unmanned aircraft and the networks that connect them among its top priorities. Dennis Muilenburg, who was promoted to IDS chief executive in September, said that while the company will protect core production programs such as its F/A-18 Super Hornet fighter jet and the C-17 Globemaster III cargo lifter, Boeing must expand its support and logistical services and move more broadly into unmanned aircraft.
Boeing has spent an estimated $1 billion on seven acquisitions over the past two years.
Many of Boeing’s technologies sound like science fiction: liquid-hydrogen-powered planes that stay aloft for more than a week at a time; unmanned fighter jets that can communicate with each other and coordinate missions without humans controlling a joystick; battle simulators that train pilots and soldiers to respond to weapons and environments that don’t even exist yet.
Boeing is actually playing catch-up. General Atomics Aeronautical Systems, maker of the Predator drone, and aerospace giant Northrop Grumman, which builds the Global Hawk, have a leg up on Boeing and other competitors in the unmanned arena. But there is plenty of room for growth, analysts say, particularly in developing dedicated unmanned combat aircraft. That’s one of the areas Boeing is now targeting.
Boeing’s $32 billion IDS division is “a bit late to the game, but they are doing the right thing,” said Richard Aboulafia, vice president of analysis at Teal Group Corp., an aerospace and defense market-research firm based in Fairfax, Virginia. “Unmanned aircraft spending is still a fraction of the military budget for manned combat aircraft, but the hope is that as the demand for manned aircraft winds down and unmanned aircraft ramps up, they can take advantage.”
Analysts agree this is the best strategy given that competitor Lockheed Martin’s Joint Strike Fighter is poised to take market share from Boeing’s Super Hornet in a few years, and U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates is pushing for unmanned aircraft as an increasingly safe, capable, and affordable alternative to many of the military’s current programs.
In May, the U.S. Air Force laid out its forecast for unmanned aircraft systems through 2047. It envisions an increasingly unmanned force supported by rapidly developing technologies.
“Unmanned aircraft systems and the effects they provide have emerged as one of the most ‘in demand’ capabilities the USAF provides the Joint Force,” Air Force Secretary Michael Donley and Air Force Chief of Staff General Norton Schwartz wrote in an executive summary.
Less-expensive unmanned vehicles also play into the Pentagon’s efforts to rein in defense spending under the Obama administration, said Paul Nisbet, a principal at aerospace equity research firm JSA Research Inc. in Sarasota, Florida.
About $2 billion a year goes toward unmanned-aircraft production, compared with about $17 billion on average for manned fighter aircraft, Aboulafia said. But the unmanned market is growing, and there is a lot of technological value to be added by Boeing and others, he said.
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