Happy 2012. Ready to get back on the road? No, neither am I, but we're rarely in charge of our own flight schedules, so if the boss or the client says travel, we nod our weary heads and say "where to?"

Journalistic convention (not to mention my own bosses here at Portfolio.com) requires me to "predict" the major developments of this year on the road. Despite quite liking the ceremonial swami's turban—the silly hat covers my bald pate during these cold winter months—I know that trying to predict the future of business travel even 12 months out is a fool's game.

So let's be foolish. And don't forget to read with a gigantic salt shaker at the ready. The more grains of salt you apply, the more plausible my predictions become.

Is There an American Way Forward?

Logic dictates that the bankruptcy of American Airlines will dominate the knowable news in 2012. Operationally, the once-proud carrier is sure to shrink, and it already announced plans to dump almost two-dozen smaller aircraft and retreat from nearly a dozen domestic routes. Further cuts are likely, especially on transatlantic runs in which premium-class business is predicted to be weak and American can code-share with OneWorld partners such as British Airways and Iberia. A retreat from some Pacific routes in favor of more cooperation with its Cathay Pacific, Qantas, and Japan Airlines partners may also be in the cards.

But what of the future existence of American and its parent, AMR Corporation? Before the tumble into Chapter 11, Tom Horton, now chief executive, made no secret of his desire to be acquired by International Airlines Group, parent company of both BA and Iberia. That would require a change in U.S. aviation law, however, which isn't likely to happen in an election year. Still, no airline that's gone into bankruptcy in the last decade has survived as an independent. Frequently bankrupt US Airways merged with America West. United Airlines, which underwent the longest, costliest airline bankruptcy in history, merged with Continental Airlines. Delta and Northwest entered Chapter 11 on the same day in 2005 and eventually merged. Bankrupt Frontier was amalgamated with Midwest Airlines. In other words, history suggests that American Airlines has zero chance of surviving as an independent carrier.

Still a Few Bugs in the System

Even though United and Continental have entered the third year of their merger, the combined carrier's biggest hurdle is still to come: the transition of the old United Airlines onto the computer reservations and ticketing systems that once belonged to Continental Airlines. The big move is scheduled for March, and history suggests there will be substantial problems ahead. When US Airways and America West combined computer systems in 2007, the carriers' passengers were inconvenienced for weeks. And that was after the airline had boasted that the transition would be trouble-free and invisible to flyers. Even now, fly-speck-size Virgin America is more than two months into a much less complicated computer change, and its flyers continues to be dazed and confused, not to mention frequently left bereft of tickets, seat assignments, and boarding passes.

Southwest's March on Atlanta

By gobbling up AirTran Airways late in 2010, Southwest Airlines put itself on a collision course with Delta Air Lines in Atlanta. Until the AirTran buy, the nation's only consistently profitable major airline didn't even offer flights into Atlanta. But now that it controls AirTran, Southwest goes head-to-head with Delta's 900-flight-a-day hub at Hartsfield International. Southwest is molding AirTran in its own image, which means the perks go (AirTran's business-class seats and even the in-flight satellite radio service) and in comes Texas-based Southwest's model of simplicity: just a few fare categories, no charge for checked bags and the most consistent in-flight product in the skies.

The battle between the two carriers will be fascinating for observers and at least as interesting for frequent flyers. Will AirTran customers who lose the cheap upgrades to business class defect to Delta and its first-class cabins? Will Southwest's simple, one-way fares woo business travelers away from Delta and its convoluted pricing system?

The Southwest shuffle will also affect travelers in other cities as the airline rejiggers its combined route map. One immediate casualty: flyers in Philadelphia. Southwest is downsizing there, and that includes dropping the key intrastate route to Pittsburgh. Roundtrip fares on the 268-mile trip had been running about $200 when Southwest competed with Philadelphia-hubbed US Airways. But when Southwest exits this month, US Airways' walk-up prices jump into the $700 range.