Here's the bad news: Your summer vacation will cost more than last year.

Here's the good news: It's still likely to cost you less to travel this summer than in 2007 and 2008, when unprecedented demand and $147-a-barrel oil drove holiday prices to record highs.

The financial collapse of late 2008 didn't just wallop the economy in general and business travel in particular. It ravaged leisure travel too, created the "staycation," and led to unprecedented flight and hotel bargains.

Most of those once-in-a-lifetime deals have disappeared. The modest economic recovery, recent run-ups in gasoline prices, and a modicum of capacity discipline by travel suppliers have sent holiday costs upward.

But if you've got to get away this summer—and who doesn't?—a little sleuthing and some flexibility will yield noteworthy discounts. Your mileage (literally and figuratively) will vary, but try not to let the abnormally low rates of 2009 and 2010 warp your thinking about "reasonable" prices.

Gambling on a Holiday

No place suffered more from the 2008 collapse than Las Vegas. The average daily rate at Sin City's hotels and casinos dropped to a startling $39 between 2007 and 2009. Even new resorts such as the Ritz-Carlton Las Vegas Lakes closed unceremoniously.

The Ritz reopened earlier this year as an unbranded, less-ritzy resort called the Ravella. And visitors have slowly returned to the sprawling Las Vegas market. But the post-crash opening of two big complexes—the three-hotel CityCenter and the Cosmopolitan—has helped keep rates low. There are plenty of rooms available this summer at less than $100 a night.

If you've had your fill of Vegas, there's always Atlantic City. And, boy, does Atlantic City hope you've had your fill of Las Vegas. Business at the New Jersey resort stinks, partially because casinos in surrounding states have lured away customers, partially because Atlantic City's infrastructure is dicey, and partially because there haven't been any glitzy new developments to create buzz. Gambling revenue has dropped for four consecutive years, and room rates reflect the malaise. Midweek rates at the city's best-rated property, the Borgata, are $149 a night this summer, and that's before deals and negotiating. Atlantic City also has one thing Las Vegas can't offer: a long, wide stretch of ocean beach.

Mexican Standoff

The U.S. State Department produced another Travel Warning for Mexico late last month, and that infuriates the Mexican government, which is desperately attempting to lure visitors back. The political standoff shows no sign of resolution, but one thing's for sure: Enough travelers have been frightened away by government warnings and the underlying violence that Mexico's popular tourist attractions are suffering horrific declines.

About half of the country's guestrooms are empty. In Acapulco, one of the areas covered in the latest State Department warning, occupancy is now below 40 percent. In Cancun, a favorite of American visitors and a comparatively undisturbed area, occupancy has plunged 15 percent since 2008. Countrywide, the international visitor count was 78 million last year, down from nearly 92 million two years ago.

The bottom line: Discounting is rampant. Rates at most properties are down sharply in recent years, and hotels and resorts throughout Mexico are offering all sorts of inducements—free nights, free meals, spa treatments, you name it—in a frenzied attempt to lure the U.S. visitor. If you aren't deterred by the crime and the drug violence—and millions aren't—Mexico is fabulous bargain.