The Sorry State of JAL
Deja Vu All Over Again
Sky Survivors
Why Do Fools Fall in Love?
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Although details are still sketchy, JAL's three-year restructuring plan announced Tuesday will cut more than 15,000 employees from the company's current workforce of nearly 52,000 and end flights on 14 international and 17 domestic routes. Shareholders will be wiped out, of course, and many bondholders are in for a haircut on their holdings. A massive fire sale of noncore assets is almost assured.
For all of its problems, however, Japan Airlines still has some fans: American Airlines, which is desperate to keep it in the Oneworld Alliance with British Airways, Iberia, Qantas, and Cathay Pacific; and Delta Air Lines, which fronts the SkyTeam Alliance with Air France, KLM, Alitalia, and Korean Air. For various reasons, and despite their own woeful financial situation, both American and Delta are desperate to loan JAL cash.
American, which has cut many of its own international flights in recent years as it struggled to remain afloat, needs to keep JAL in Oneworld. If JAL defects to SkyTeam, American would lose access to JAL's still-formidable hub at Tokyo's Narita Airport, its ties to secondary Japanese markets, and many fast-growing regions of Asia. Delta, which now has a large hub at Narita, thanks to its merger with Northwest Airlines, wants an alliance with JAL to solidify its grip on transpacific service. As a result of the bidding war between American and its Oneworld allies and Delta and its SkyTeam partners, JAL is assured billions in short-term aid and long-term revenue sharing.
Ironically, the battle is a textbook example of how old-line airlines look to the past, not the future. Japan and its troubled flagship carrier are no longer the dominant players in Asia. Moreover, Narita is one of the world's most cramped, least pleasant, and most expensive hubs. The future clearly belongs to China, which has built new state-of-the-art airports in Beijing and Shanghai to support its economic growth and political power. India is also an emerging regional power, and Tokyo is hardly a compelling place for travelers to visit en route to the subcontinent. Besides, India has a growing number of nonstop flights from the United States.
"Delta and American would both be better served by concentrating on the future of Asia, not the past," the network strategist for a major European carrier told me several weeks ago. "JAL probably isn't worth it anymore. Narita certainly isn't worth it anymore."
The Fine Print…
All five of the U.S. legacy carriers have raised their domestic checked-bag fees since the beginning of the year. Unless you are an elite-level flyer or traveling on a full-fare or premium-class ticket, expect to pay $20 to $25 for the first checked bag and $30 to $35 for the privilege of checking a second bag. Southwest Airlines, which still allows all flyers to check two bags free, has launched a TV campaign to highlight its policy. JetBlue Airways still permits you one checked bag free of charge. You can view an updated list of baggage fees and rules at a site called Airfare Watchdog.
Joe Brancatelli writes Portfolio.com’s business travel column, Seat 2B. Brancatelli is the former executive editor of Frequent Flyer magazine and operates the membership site JoeSentMe.com. You can reach him at jbrancatelli@portfolio.com.
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