“I’m glad the Commerce Department is leading out on this, I think it’s fantastic,” he said, pointing out that the market is becoming increasingly global. “This will be an opportunity for suppliers around here to know what’s going on and possibly to participate.”

(As a reflection of the increasing globalization of the local industry, Steck works for the U.S. arm of a Canadian company called Composites Atlantic, which is a unit of Airbus’ parent company, EADS.)

Most observers expect that China’s entry into the commercial market will be in stages, with most of the initial sales into China itself, as well as lesser-served markets such as Africa, where China can swap aircraft for resources.

One reason is that meeting the efficiency standards already set by Boeing and Airbus will be hard, despite the Chinese claim that the C919 will burn 12 percent to 15 percent less fuel than the 737 or Airbus A320 series, partly due to what the Chinese say will be a more extensive use of lighter composites in the construction.

The ARJ21, for instance, is proving to be somewhat heavier than competing planes from established commercial builders, said Doug Royce, market analyst for Forecast International Inc. in Newtown, Connecticut.

“Based on their performance with the ARJ21,” he said, “the likelihood is they will have trouble making an aircraft that can compete with A320 series and 737.”

Addison Schonland, a principal at Innovation Analysis Group in San Diego, agreed.

“If it turns out to be overweight, underperforming, badly made, it isn’t that much of a threat.”

China’s aerospace industry has a history in this arena, particularly when it developed the Shanghai Y-10 in the 1970s, which was a knockoff of Boeing’s 707. The Chinese plane never competed commercially, and only two were built.

But since then, the Chinese aircraft market has become huge, and the greatest near-term damage to Boeing might be if the Chinese jet displaced Boeing sales there.