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FDIC Opens Door a Little to Private Equity

Is the Geithner Plan an FDIC Plan?

I'm beginning to come around to the idea that the FDIC will play the single most important role in determining the way that the Geithner plan plays out. If the banking system is indeed as unhealthy as everybody thinks it is, the FDIC essentially has two choices: it can either ratify high prices being paid for toxic assets by extending financing guarantees for them, or it can force lower prices to be paid for toxic assets, force banks to mark their assets down to levels at which they violate their minimum capital requirements, and intervene to close those banks down.

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Going forward, there could be many more private equity purchases of banks, Ross said. With four to five banks failing every week, there are plenty of opportunities for investors to consider. So many banks are failing that some analysts think the FDIC itself may charge banks higher fees or borrow money from the Treasury so that it can meet its growing obligations to pay back depositors at failed institutions.

Ross estimated that as much as $100 billion in private equity could go toward failed banks in coming years, but only if buyouts in the sector appear to be successful.

Ross says he intends to make more acquisitions in the bank world. And “yes, we have a target list," he says.

Bill Stern, a partner at Goodwin Procter LLP in New York, said that the rule changes were sufficient to bring private equity players back to the table.

“I think that there was enough positive movement and at least enough certainty that some investors may find it palatable,” he said. “Now that we know some of the lay of the land, some of these deals may start to move.” But, he added, “I don’t think there’s going to be this huge inrush of capital.”

Others say: Don’t look for private equity deals in the hundreds. It’s more likely to be dozens of private equity banking deals.

“I think that’s fair,” said William Isaac, chairman of Global Financial Services for LECG and former chairman of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation. “I think that private equity is a part of the solution to the problem, it’s not the solution.”

Others are skeptical that private equity represents much of a solution at all.

“No matter what the FDIC does…the amount of private equity that’s going to come in is insignificant,” said Kamal Mustafa, former head of Citigroup's Global M&A and corporate finance departments and now chairman of Invictus Consulting Group. Banks are different from other distressed businesses private equity buys, like retailers or manufacturers. In those businesses, it makes sense to drive down costs, drive up revenue, and sell the business as it starts to perform better.

But banks have to hold a certain amount of capital to buffer them from losses, and that could tie down a private equity firm’s money longer than it would want.

“The amount of deals they will do is not going to be worth a squawk,” said Mustafa. “They might buy 50 banks…but they’re not going to be significant in the big picture. The best buyer for a bank is a bank that’s well run.”


Kent Bernhard Jr. is News Editor of Portfolio.com
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