George Feldenkreis, chairman and CEO, Perry Ellis International

When: "Toward the end of the year and into next year, as the stimulus money starts to flow into consumer pockets. This will provide more confidence that they will keep their jobs."

What: "Market changes to make the rules more flexible and realistic. When continuous devaluation of assets stops or we get a one-year respite, a lot of confidence to invest is going to be restored. We need the trillions of cash sitting on the sidelines to come back to invest."

Richard Hastings, consumer strategist, Global Hunter Securities

When: "The economy will not revert back to the form it had prior to 2007. We are looking at a 100-year, if not greater, cyclical restructuring of how people interact. Some parts will stabilize in mid-2010, especially nondurable spending on things like apparel. Durables like autos and appliances will remain subnormal for a very long time."

What: Technological innovation and funding for such innovation, and massive intervention to help small-business formation. And this will require a gigantic reform of health care. There is simply no recovery in small business without health care reform. Technology and small business, that's the future. Housing is long-term kaput."

Abe Chehebar, chairman and CEO, Accessory Network Group

When: What is unique about this recession is that the downturn happened very quickly. Never before in our history did things go from being so great to so terrible at such a rapid pace. The accessibility of information and the speed at which it travels is a direct result of why it happened so fast, and for that reason, I believe that we will rebound just as fast. One thing that people do not realize is that when we had the last recession, the Internet was not as widely used to spread information. Good business will come back this time as quickly as it left us."

What: "The reports coming from the media as well as major corporations have been horrible and have created much fear across every financial demographic. Many companies have eliminated a lot of unnecessary expense and have learned how to do more with less, and as a result, when things do get good, it will be very good."

Walter Loeb, retail consultant of Loeb & Associates

When: "2010 will be better. You'll see some increased demand at the end of the year, and retailers will have better year-over-year comparable-store sales, so maybe improvement could happen by the end of the first quarter."

What: "Unemployment may top out at 10 percent, and just the abatement of announcements of companies laying off staff could in itself be a positive sign. That, plus the combination of Obama initiatives taking hold and improvement in the stock market will give consumers and investors more confidence."

Stevan Buxbaum, executive vice president, Buxbaum Group

When: "If someone says they know, you should back away. Event risks control everything, and you can't know what events are going to take place. We could have a better fourth quarter, but the potential for an event to happen and for more turmoil is always lurking on the edge."

What: "The most important thing that needs to happen is for people to begin to have confidence in their greatest asset. When housing values start going up, and if they want to sell and can find a buyer who can get financing, that's when people will start spending again."

Maggie Gilliam, retail consultant, Gilliam & Co.

When: "I haven't a clue. This is a global situation that could take years."

What: "It is beyond this country's control to fix the global situation, which needs to be fixed first. Right now we are throwing money down the tube to rescue these companies, some of which should go down. There are enough entrepreneurs to pick up the slack. We should not give money to companies to run obsolete fashion businesses."

Neely Tamminga, retail analyst, Piper Jaffray

When: "We believe the women's apparel retail group led us into this recession and will lead us out. We believe that cost structures will catch up to the reality of the significant slowdown that we're seeing in the top line, which will provide a stabilization in earnings late spring to early summer."

What: "Leading indicators will be when traffic levels in malls begin to stabilize in concurrence with greater conversion."

Recovery Checklist
Possible signs the bottom has been reached and a genuine recovery is under way:

• Higher employment.
• Stabilized financial institutions with new rules.
• Improvements in the flow of credit.
• Pickup in the housing market.
• Sustained stock market comeback.
• Resumption of growth in sales and profits.
• Disposal of toxic assets.
• Higher consumer confidence and spending.

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