Marvin Traub, co-founder, TSM Capital

When: "I wish I had an answer to that. Certainly, fall will be difficult."

What: "The most important thing is to try to restore some level of confidence in the consumer."

Bud Bergren, president and CEO, The Bon-Ton Stores Inc.

When: "It's hard to predict what 2009 will bring and when we can expect the recovery of the economy to begin. Accordingly, Bon-Ton announced in its January 29, 2009, press release that we were taking the necessary actions to reduce expenses to ensure our organization is appropriately structured for this environment and emerges as a stronger company."

What: "There is not just one thing that is important to initiate the turnaround or recovery of the economy. There are a number of events that must occur to ultimately return confidence back to the consumer to reasonable levels—financial institutions stabilized, housing market stabilized, job loss abated. To quote Warren Buffett, 'Fear and confusion have been driving consumer and investor behavior in recent months.' This has to be reversed in order for people to feel confident about spending once again."

Herbert Hainer, chairman and CEO, Adidas AG

When: "If I knew that, I could earn billions. Unfortunately, I definitely think it will go through at least the rest of 2009, but I don't know how much longer."

What: "All these so-called 'toxic products still in banks have to go. In this moment, banks are not lending to each other, and we need this circle of money. And then from there, we need to bring trust and confidence back."

Bob Carbonell, executive vice president and chief credit officer, Bernard Sands Credit Consultants.

When: "The second quarter of 2010."

What: "The government has been throwing money to AIG and banks, and they have to do the same to automakers to ensure that we don’t lose one of the Big Three to bankruptcy, which would push unemployment to over 10 percent. That 10 percent is a real number because of the domino effect down the line. No one would buy the cars, and it doesn't matter if the government honors the [service] warranties. You'll see parts suppliers possibly filing, and many dealers as well, some of which have already filed. Then you'll see a whole new group of consumers not spending."

Josie Natori, president and CEO, Natori Co.

When: "I think the question of when the economy will turn around is a toughie— 009 is a done deal. Warren Buffett says we're going through an 'economic Pearl Harbor.' But we have a resilient economy, and I think there will be some relief, some light at the end of the tunnel by next fall."

What: "When I see the stock market go up again, I think we'll get some confidence. People have to start spending again. Everything is frozen right now. There are so many factors involved, such as company earnings and the stimulus package. President Obama is doing what he can. We haven’t fallen off a cliff. But things clearly will not be the way things were. There's been a total transformation in people's mind-sets.

Jeffrey Edelman, director of retail and consumer advisory services, RSM McGladrey Inc.

When: "What we have is a massive deinventorying taking place. Since we are no longer a manufacturing nation, that massive deinventorying is in people. I think the inflection point in the economy will be in the second half. The consumer will react when he feels more secure in his job."

What: "The turnaround will probably manifest itself without any stimulus package. The key thing to look at is employment. As soon as employment bottoms and you add to the workforce, then you’ll see a turning point for consumer confidence and spending."

Bob Mitchell, co-president, Mitchells/Richards/Marshs

When: "The change in our business occurred after Lehman Brothers failed [in September]. We hope that there will be some stability when we anniversary that. Anything before that would be a welcome surprise, but we don't expect any real change in the spring or summer. Either way, we all have to slow down our promotional activity or we will have a long cycle ahead of us."

What: "Two big things have to happen: The stock market has to stabilize or go up again, and there has to be some clarity that the banks are going to do well. Both of these things are causing paralysis. We also need some good news in the media. People still have money, but the news is so negative every day that they don't want to spend it. Our customers' closets are full, so it's easy for them to stop shopping. But once people feel good again, they'll feel comfortable spending money."

Scott Hoyt, senior director of consumer economics, Moody's Economy.com

When: "We are looking for positive real spending growth in [the first quarter of 2009], probably in [the second quarter] as well, then some declines probably in the second half before we get a more sustained turnaround next year. We need a broader turn in the economy before we can get something that's more sustainable. We're still officially calling for the recession to last through the end of the year."

What: "In the short term, between now and summer, even though we're bleeding large numbers of jobs, there's going to be a fair amount of cash flowing into consumers' pockets, and a lot of that cash is going to go into lower-income households and they're going to spend it. The key is what goes on in the job market. We need to stop bleeding 600,000 to 700,000 jobs a month."