Have we hit bottom yet?

That question is being debated even following the agreement by global leaders at the G-20 Summit in London last week to pump another $1.1 trillion into the International Monetary Fund and take other steps to jump-start the U.S. and world economies. The moves, and recent upward momentum on Wall Street, generated optimism—even if only momentary—that, as one observer said, "little green shoots" might be springing up at last.

Others aren't so sure, and believe there might not be any firm recovery until 2011 or later. The difficulty in answering the question is that it depends on whom you ask. Ever since a recession dating back to late 2007 was certified last year, experts from Wall Street to Seventh Avenue have wondered just how much worse things could get and when the bottom of a murky—and very possibly long-term—downturn would be found. Would stocks signal with an upturn? Would the end of declines in profits and same-store sales mean the economic engine was beginning to roar again, or only that things had reached a sustainable nadir?

WWD asked retailers, manufacturers, analysts, economists, and industry consultants for their thoughts on two questions: When will the U.S. economy turn around? And what will it take to get a genuine recovery started? Here's what they had to say:

Terry Lundgren, chairman, president, and chief executive officer, Macy's Inc.
When: "Uncertainty in the economy continues to make predictions very difficult. None of us has a crystal ball. We are expecting a very challenging environment through the remainder of 2009. Our current assumption is that same-store sales at Macy's Inc. will be down between 6 and 8 percent in fiscal 2009. We will be looking for signs of early recovery as the economic stimulus bill passed by Congress takes effect, but we have not yet seen any indications of a turnaround."

What: "The key is employment. For retailing to recover, we need to start creating jobs again in America. When individuals and families have steady, dependable incomes, they are more comfortable in shopping for items that are beyond the necessities for survival. We will also need a return of confidence in the credit markets so consumers can have ready access to revolving credit. Consumer spending represents two-thirds of the U.S. economy, and until the consumer begins to spend again, our economy will not see any meaningful recovery."

Eric Wiseman, chairman, president and ceo, VF Corp.
When: "Our plans for VF do not assume any improvement in the economy in 2009."

What: "Consumer confidence needs to move in a positive direction, and I believe the biggest driver of that will be stabilization, and then improvement, in the employment numbers."

Peter J. Solomon, founder and chairman, Peter J. Solomon Co., independent investment banking advisory firm
When: "We don't know when the economy will turn around. We think this period of turmoil will last at least until two years from now. We are worried about inflation at that time. But the issues of deflation and credit unavailability are now our dominant concerns."

What: "For the consumer part of the economy to turn around, the housing market must stabilize. Concurrently, the credit system—both in banks and nonbanks—must be stabilized. Finally, confidence in the president's leadership is an essential element in making consumers relax and feel better about their futures."

Rosalind Wells, chief economist, National Retail Federation
When: "The answer depends on so many things, but if all the economic policies go well, we expect to see a stabilization in the third quarter and an uptick in the fourth. But it depends on the stimulus package, the economic policy, the Treasury, mortgage foreclosures and a lot of other things. But with all these things in the pot, we need some time to see if they're going to work."

What: "The one most important word to me is confidence. If the economic recovery package seems to be working, it will instill confidence in consumers and businesses, and we will begin to see something happen, and we'll get back to some sense of normalcy."

Gilbert Harrison, chairman of Financo Inc.
When: "It is happening right now."

What: "What the president [of the U.S.] has done in Europe this week [at the G-20 Summit] has done more to make the world feel better about this country, and the consumer feel better about the economy [going forward], than they have in months."

Michael Kramer, president and CEO, Kellwood Co.
When: "I believe we're beginning to see the signs of some improvement toward the end of this year, which will accelerate in 2010. A consensus is building that we've hit bottom already, but a few more months will give us a better picture as to whether we're gaining traction, particularly among consumers."

What: "We need some positive momentum to get the ball rolling, particularly through improving trends in sales and profit growth to help restore confidence on Wall Street. I also believe strongly that banks have overreacted and tightened too much. This correction may have been needed, but we need to restore a sense of balance to the credit markets to get commerce flowing again."

Bud Konheim, CEO, Nicole Miller
When: "Spring is the time when everyone wants to go out to buy something new. The coats come off and all of a sudden there is an appetite for fashion. We will see a bounce in business but that may be a bounce in the recession."

What: "There will be a rearrangement of what is value in style and fashion. Consumers have already changed their minds about status buying. But they haven't changed their minds about what makes a good style versus a bad style. There will be a customer resurgence in the spring just because it’s spring. The question is how that will match up with the supply that is out there. A lot has to do with confidence. That will fuel a lot of excitement and enthusiasm. The most powerful emotion is fear—it's not love or anything else."