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Bernanke: It's an Inflation Situation

Fed chief Ben Bernanke, in a unique press conference, warned about rising consumer prices while he downplayed the current high price of gasoline.

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Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke

Despite only so-so economic growth, inflation clearly is becoming a big issue for Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke.

That’s one takeaway from today’s historic press conference—the first time a Fed chairman has taken questions from reporters after a meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee. The committee voted today to keep trying to stimulate the economy by continuing to purchase $600 billion in Treasury securities through June. It also will continue to reinvest principal payments from its security holdings. In addition, it plans to keep its federal funds rate near zero for an “extended period.”

But that’s as far as the Federal Reserve appears willing to go in trying to juice up the economy. Why not another round of Treasury purchases, a “quantitative easing” strategy designed to lower interest rates and make assets, such as stocks, more attractive to investors?

“The trade-offs are getting less attractive at this point,” Bernanke said. That’s because inflation has increased, and it’s not clear that more easy money can generate enough rapid job growth without causing inflation to become unacceptably high, he said.

Bernanke is walking a tightrope, trying to fulfill the Fed’s dual mandate: promoting maximum employment and stable prices. Although the unemployment rate has decreased in recent months, it remains high. The Fed projects it won’t drop below 8 percent until 2012. It won’t fall below 7 percent until 2013, according to projections.

Inflation, meanwhile, is becoming more of an issue, thanks to higher commodity prices. Every American is feeling the pinch of higher gasoline prices.

“Higher gas prices are absolutely creating a great deal of financial hardship for a lot of people,” Bernanke said. It’s “obviously a very bad development”—a “double whammy” because it not only contributes to inflation but also hurts economic recovery by “draining purchasing power from households,” he said.

But Bernanke thinks higher gasoline prices are a temporary phenomenon and will return to more normal levels. There’s not much Bernanke can do about them—“the Fed can’t create more oil,” he said. It can try to keep higher gasoline prices from leading to broader inflation, ”which would be much more difficult to distinguish,” he said.

For now, inflation remains low, apart from gasoline and other commodities, he said. Plus, expectations for inflation in the future—a key factor for businesses—remain stable, he said.

“We’ll be watching that very carefully,” he said.

If there are signs that more consumers and businesses expect inflation to get higher, “there is no substitute for action, and we’d have to respond,” Bernanke said.

“Every central banker understands that keeping inflation low and stable is absolutely essential to a successful economy,” he said. “We’ll do what’s necessary to make sure that happens.”

That would mean tightening the money supply and raising interest rates.

There already is at least one warning signal on inflation from small businesses. A survey of small-business owners in March by the National Federation of Independent Business found that a net 24 percent plan to increase their prices—the highest percentage on this question in 30 months. This was before higher gasoline prices became much of an issue for businesses other than transportation and delivery services firms, NFIB noted.

“Inflation is back on Main Street,” NFIB concluded.


Kent Hoover is the Washington bureau chief for bizjournals.

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