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Normal? What’s That?

American small businesses may see their own operations slowly getting better for the first time since the Great Recession, but a new survey finds they hold a dim view when asked if the nation will regain its economic-powerhouse status.

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Explore all the results from The Business Journals' 2011 survey of small-business owner attitudes. See All Video & Multimedia
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Three years ago, as the financial sector was entering the worst phase of what we’ve now come to call the Great Recession, 64 percent of American small-business owners remained bullish on one point—a confidence that the U.S. economy would regain its former strength.

Today, despite a revitalized stock market, the view is far different. Now, a solid minority of small-business owners—43 percent—believe that the U.S. economy will reclaim its position on the world stage. And only 32 percent believe it will be stronger than it was before.

Those findings are part of an extensive survey of attitudes of 2,223 business owners and leaders surveyed by The Business Journals, which, along with Portfolio.com, is owned by American City Business Journals. Those questioned from November 2010 to January 2011 represent businesses with between 1 and 499 employees. The survey results were released today.

“The paradigm has changed. The place of America in the world has changed,” said Godfrey Phillips, The Business Journals vice president for research. “We have no idea what normal is anymore.”

What has happened since the last recession began, Phillips said, is that owners of small- and mid-sized businesses believe their own companies have stabilized somewhat. In 2007, for example, 74 percent of business leaders surveyed said their businesses had sales growth. That figure dropped to 61 percent in 2008 and then plummeted to 42 percent in 2009. Last year (or in the current survey), 44 percent reported sales growth.

“We’re not in free fall anymore,” Phillips said. While that stabilization helps small-business owners take a more optimistic stand toward their own operations, their view of the U.S. economy in a bigger context is far less positive.

One entrepreneur, David Duncan, the COO of Paddywax, an Atlanta manufacturer and seller of scents and candles, takes a nuanced view. To him, much of the pre-recession growth was built on overspending and debt. And the United States is entering a period where growth, while it might not be as spectacular as it once was, is more sustainable.

“I think that business owners and entrepreneurs realize that the economy pre-recession was false,” Duncan said. “I’m optimistic that the U.S. economy is going to become healthy and strong. It’s not going to be falsely inflated.”

But even that optimism could be undercut if the country can’t get a handle on its political class and the government’s habit of spending more than it collects. Standard & Poor’s, one of the big debt rating agencies, recently slapped the United States with a negative outlook on keeping its sterling AAA credit rating.

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