A Less Confident Small-Biz Nation
Small Business Is Big Priority
Small Businesses Push into Big World
One of the chief lobbying groups for small business shows a drop in small-business optimism in its June survey and, not surprisingly, blames the government.
"The U.S. economy faces hurricane-force headwinds, and the government is at the center of the storm, making an economic recovery very difficult," said William Dunkelberg, the National Federation of Independent Business chief economist said in the report released this morning.
NFIB tracks small-business conditions every month, and in June, the small-business optimism index fell 3.2 points, to 89, after showing gains through the spring. The survey shows small businesses having difficulty accessing credit, worrying about future revenue, and cautious about plans to hire.
The NFIB clearly isn't happy with much of what it sees in Washington. It has joined in suing to stop the health care reform passed earlier this year and expressed concern over other Obama administration policies. But there are also international developments such as the European debt crisis that are weighing on small-business confidence.
"Owners do not trust the economic policies in place or proposed, and they are distressed by global and national developments that make the future more uncertain," Dunkelberg said.
Following previous recessions, the NFIB’s small-business optimism index has usually risen above 100 within a few quarters of the recession’s trough. That hasn’t happened this time. Optimism has hovered in the 80s and 90s, and hasn’t been above 93 since January 2008, in the early stages of the recession and months before the collapse of Lehman Brothers and a spate of government bank bailouts set the stage for an abysmal 2009.
The NFIB survey comes to a different conclusion than a quarterly survey released by Vistage International, a consulting firm, which shows optimism rebounding among small-business CEOs.
“They do not expect another downturn,” said Richard Curtin of the University of Michigan, who created the Vistage survey, last week.
But he does agree that small-business leaders aren’t leaping to spend. “One of the reasons they’re more cautious is this uncertainty,” Curtin said.
The biggest reason for the increase in pessimism shown in the NFIB survey is a drop in expectation for rising sales for the coming six months.
And that expectation means everything to the cycle of recovery. With unemployment hovering close to double-digits, it’s essential that small businesses, which have traditionally led the nation in hiring its way out of recession, begin doing so again. It’s a vicious cycle. Without that hiring taking place, expectations for spending will continue to be weak.
"Hiring and capital spending depend on expectations for growth in future sales, so the outlook for improved spending and hiring is not good," Dunkelberg said.
In June, 10 percent of small businesses planned to make new hires over the next three months, down four points from May. And 8 percent plan to cut employment. Any way you want to look at it, that’s not a scenario for growth.
Small businesses also continue to have a very hard time raising capital, according to the report. That’s something Congress could have helped to address, but failed to tackle before the Senate went on its weeklong July 4 vacation.
Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke said Monday getting credit flowing to small business is key to recovery. “Clearly, though, to support the recovery, we need to find ways to ensure that creditworthy borrowers have access to needed loans,” Bernanke said.
But toughened up bank examiners are scaring many lenders away from the market. And a government program that had been propping up some lending has been allowed to lapse.
Banks loaned less than $400 million in loans backed by the Small Business Administration’s main loan guarantee program in June, down from $1.5 billion in May. As part of the stimulus, the government had been backing 90 percent of the amount of those loans, but the Senate allowed that percentage to fall back to 75.
“Shame on them,” Eddie Tuvin, vice president of SBA and commercial lending at Capital Bank in Rockville, Maryland, told Portfolio.com Washington Bureau Chief Kent Hoover. “Why isn’t it a priority?”
The Senate is expected to vote this month on extending the guarantees and establishing a $30 billion fund to go to small banks to lend to small business. But it will take further legislative work to reconcile the Senate’s bill with one already passed in the House before it can be sent to President Barack Obama for his signature.
"The small-business sector is not on a positive trajectory and with this half of the private sector missing-in-action, the economy's poor growth performance is no surprise," said Dunkelberg. "Small business owners are not happy about the future of the economy being painted by the administration or economic events. Confidence is lacking and the news out of Washington is discouraging. Until this changes, don't expect small businesses to start hiring."
Kent Bernhard Jr. is News Editor of Portfolio.com
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