The Unstimulus
Suspense Over.
Bernanke Confirmed.
The Terror
The Year of Forgetting
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Like a fry cook trying to unscramble an egg, the government must now try to figure out how to "unstimulate" the economy. Based on the strength of Friday's economic report, which showed an unexpectedly strong 5.7 percent surge in gross domestic product during the fourth quarter, the Federal Reserve and the Treasury may need to scale back their economic-stimulus efforts a bit sooner than expected.
Prosperity always brings its own set of challenges, though. Oh, it sure beats recession. But the headaches associated with growth are real. Here's a look at the biggest risks of the coming prosperity, with a few thoughts on how they might be contained.
Rising interest rates: As the economy heats up, investors will demand a higher yield on Treasury debt to offset the growing risk of inflation, which eats away at the value of fixed-income securities. Interest rates have been rising for several weeks, and they rose a few more notches after Friday's GDP report. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note rose 0.04 of a percentage point, or basis points, on the news. The yield on the 10-year note is now 3.68 percent. Higher rates aren't necessarily a bad thing. In fact, artificially low rates got the economy into its current mess in the first place. But for better or worse, higher rates are usually a break on economic growth. And given the still-vulnerable state of the economy, higher rates could do some real damage if they climb too high or too fast. If rates rise at a reasonable pace, the economy actually could benefit as banks decide that it makes economic sense for them to start lending more money to small businesses.
Here's the dilemma for the Fed, which has already scaled back the stimulus by halting the purchase of long-term Treasury debt and plans to slow things down again this spring by halting the purchase of mortgage debt: If it waits too long to remove the stimulus, inflation will follow, and the Fed will have to jack up rates so high that a second round of inflation is all but assured. If it removes the stimulus too soon, the Fed runs the risk of pushing the economy back into recession anyway. For some reason or another, Ben Bernanke wanted a second term as chairman of the Fed. Good luck to him.
The national debt: The government has funded the bailout and economic stimulus by borrowing lots of money. The deficit for the current fiscal year is estimated at $1.4 trillion and the total national debt is $12.39 trillion, an incredible fact considering that the government ran a surplus as recently as 2001. Many of those longer-term obligations have been funded with shorter-term notes. As shorter-term borrowing costs rise in a stronger economy, so will the cost of servicing the national debt. And those higher borrowing costs will spread through the economy, creating a drag.
The job market: Economic growth usually leads to job creation, although there tends to be a six-month delay. Employers want to be reasonably sure that the economy is in good shape before they start hiring, because it is a lot easier to take on workers than it is to fire them. If anything happens to spook them, and they decide not to hire, the economy could be stuck with the worst of all possible worlds, higher interest rates and a poor job market. That is why some economists worry about a return of '70s-style stagflation, albeit in a milder form.
China: Even if the U.S. economy slows down, growth is likely to surge ahead in China and other regions such as India. That growth could push the price of oil and other commodities higher, which could force the Fed to raise interest rates to ward off inflation. If the domestic economy isn't in shape to handle higher rates. it could be faced with another about of recession—and higher rates.
Well, that's the good news. At least the recession is over. Now all the economy needs to do is survive the recovery.
Steve Rosenbush is the blogs/industry editor for Portfolio.com.
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