The earthquake in Haiti decimated that country, but it also could have a seriously negative impact on South Florida.

As Haiti’s devastation comes into greater focus, South Florida leaders and academics wonder about the possibility of a wave of migration reminiscent of the Mariel boatlift in which more than 100,000 Cubans fled to the U.S.

The state and the region should treat Haiti’s natural disaster as if it was our own since we are ill suited to help the tens of thousands of people who could come here, said Palm Beach County Commissioner Jeff Koons.

“I don’t see how we have the capacity to be able to handle that,” he said.

Haitians living in South Florida are among the poorest-served members of the region's population, and mass immigration would only compound the problem, Koons added.

“I am sure that we’re going to have migration,” said professor Jaime Suchlicki, an expert on the Caribbean and Latin America at the University of Miami. “It’s hard to say if it’ll be 10,000 or 100,000.”

Suchlicki recalled how South Florida was rocked when Cubans were boatlifted here in 1980. Social services were taxed, and Miami earned a reputation as an exotic criminal breeding ground—an image that negatively impacted the critical tourism industry.

“Tourism suffered significantly. People were afraid to come here,” he said.

But, no matter how hard the world tries to help Haiti, efforts will inevitably fall short and result in mass migration, Suchlicki added.

If Haitians come in numbers comparable to Mariel, South Florida is far less poised to absorb them now, said Susan Purcell, who directs the Center for Hemispheric Policy at the University of Miami. Not only is the U.S. in a bruising recession, but the Haitian community already here doesn’t have the same strength as the Cubans did, so the newcomers would lack that critical support.

The U.S. Census in 2008 estimated there were 268,000 people of Haitian descent in the tri-county area.

“I think the Haitian population in the U.S. is economically poorer than the Cuban population was in the 1970s,” she said.

These factors make it even more imperative that the U.S. does everything possible to help Haiti, said Palm Beach County Commissioner Priscilla Taylor, whose district includes a substantial number of Haitians.

“We have to be involved,” she said.

But, if the masses come, they should be allowed to stay and pursue a better life, she added.

The U.S. government has temporarily suspended the deportation of Haitians living here.

Miami-Dade County regularly plans for the possibility of mass migrations even though the federal government would hold primary responsibility for such an event, said county spokeswoman Victoria Mallette.

“It’s clearly always in our minds with any of those impoverished counties that lie off our coast,” she said.

In the quake’s immediate aftermath, all efforts are focused on saving lives. But, the situation will pose a challenge to Haiti and South Florida for a long time to come, commissioner Koons said. “You just wonder what God’s plan was in all this."

For stories on some ways to help the people of Haiti, click here and here.