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Crystal Ball Comes up Cleantech

Cleantech and cloud computing top the list for investment as Silicon Valley venture capitalists emerge from the doldrums.

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IT spending levels will rise, and more companies will reach for the cloud (computing, that is). Cleantech projects will target ways to transform waste into resources, and efforts to build out the smart grid will gain the attention of investors as Silicon Valley pulls itself out of the recession and moves into 2010.

While venture investing was down overall as 2009 came to a close, cleantech for the first time became the largest sector in venture investing. Brady Berg, an attorney with the Palo Alto, California, office of Mintz Levin Cohn Ferris Glovsky & Popeo PC who specializes in emerging companies, expects the trend to continue into 2010, with a special focus on certain areas, including wide-scale solar projects, smart-grid projects, and transforming waste.

“Cleantech is a broad umbrella, but we’re starting to see some differentiation, and there are certain areas that are particularly hot now,” Berg said.

While a great deal of investing was directed at solar in 2007 and 2008, solar is now starting to differentiate itself through price and type of technology. Recently announced projects with utility companies are driving the demand for panels. For one such company, Solyndra Inc., that demand has enabled it to prepare for a $300 million initial public offering next year.

“If there was a bubble, or an overcapacity for demand, the recession didn’t help that, but now we’re seeing stimulus funds being targeted at renewables, and that’s creating an environment where projects will get done,” Berg said.

Investor Fahri Diner, a managing partner at Sigma Partners whose portfolio includes smart-glass developer Soladigm and flat-panel-television maker Kateeva, said the firms’ focus on the IT space includes a serious interest in cleantech, as many traditional entrepreneurs with proven track records are migrating to the cleantech space.

Sigma has $2 billion under management.

“We follow smart entrepreneurs,” Diner said, “and one reason we like the sector is that the end markets tend to be very large.”

In the traditional IT space, analysts say that while 2010 will be a year of modest recovery for the IT and telecommunications sectors, the market will be radically transformed by emerging markets, a new wave of mobile devices and applications, and faster networks.

International Data Corp., in its “Predictions 2010,” stated that IT spending will grow about 3.2 percent while IT spending levels will return to the same ones seen in 2008—about $1.5 trillion. Emerging markets will lead the IT recovery, according to IDC, with that segment growing by 8 percent to 13 percent.

Eric Openshaw, U.S. technology practice leader for Deloitte Services LP, said the cloud acceleration that began in part as a cost-savings measure over the past two years will continue, as more chief information officers and executives look at how to maximize resources without laying out vast amounts of capital for equipment purchases.

“I visit a lot of CIOs, and everyone wants to know how to get in the cloud. Every single person is working on a cloud strategy,” Openshaw said. “What’s holding back adoption is the usual suspects, security and control, but those things will be addressed and figured out. Most CIOs recognize it’s not a function of if but when—and at which pace.”

Another area that will probably gain attention is that more applications are becoming Web based and can be run through a browser rather than needing to be installed on computers in company networks. Because of this, companies won’t necessarily require equipment upgrades.

“It’s not clear what the pace on that will be, since any device with decent access is good enough to access these applications,” Openshaw said. “But from an asset age point of view, companies are at the end of the three-to-five-year life cycle in the last wave of asset purchases.”

From a security perspective, companies should brace themselves for a new and continued onslaught of Web-based threats and prepare accordingly. Mike Denning, vice president of VeriSign Inc.’s iDefense Security Intelligence Unit, said hackers will increasingly turn to social-networking sites as a way to distribute malware and steal personal information.

“At a macro level, there is a high level of premium being placed on trust,” Denning said. “With the continued evolution of culture to an online culture, there is so much convenience in putting yourself and your business online because it’s convenient and always open, but you have to remember to be diligent on security.”


Mary Duan writes for the Silicon Valley/San Jose Business Journal.

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