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Bottom Dwellers

For a sense of which cities have done the worst in an analysis of income strength, just look West. 

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The following is a list of the bottom-10 cities ranked by income growth. (To see the full list of the top 100 metro areas, click here.)

1. Provo, Utah

Gloomy economic news abounds in Provo, which has lost 6 percent of its jobs since mid-2008. Only one of America’s 100 biggest markets is below Provo’s PCI of $21,758: McAllen-Edinburg, Texas ($19,377). And none has seen slower income growth than Provo’s five-year rate of 9.6 percent. Growth score: -44.0 points.

Per-capita income:

• 2008: $21,758

• 2003: $19,846

• 1993: $13,807

• 1983: $7,979

Income growth:

• 2003 to 2008 (5 years): 9.6 percent

• 1993 to 2008 (15 years): 57.6 percent

• 1983 to 2008 (25 years): 172.7 percent

Other stats

Metro population (2008): 540,820

Private-sector employment (June 2009): 151,400

Employment growth (2008 to 2009): -6.0 percent

2. Riverside-San Bernardino, California

Riverside-San Bernardino is still paying the price for Southern California’s now-deflated real-estate bubble. Recent numbers are dismal, such as midyear unemployment of 13.7 percent and 15-year income growth of 61.9 percent. The latter is the sixth-worst rate in America. Growth score: -39.5 points.

Per-capita income:

• 2008: $29,016

• 2003: $24,737

• 1993: $17,918

• 1983: $12,485

Income growth:

• 2003 to 2008 (5 years): 17.3 percent

• 1993 to 2008 (15 years): 61.9 percent

• 1983 to 2008 (25 years): 132.4 percent

Other stats

Metro population (2008): 4,115,871

Private-sector employment (June 2009): 924,600

Employment growth (2008 to 2009): -7.5 percent

3. Stockton, California

Four of the bottom-10 markets are in the interior portion of California, including Stockton. Its PCI ($29,178) is the seventh-worst among the nation’s 100 biggest metros. And its 25-year income growth rate is the third-worst, beating only Bakersfield and Riverside-San Bernardino, California. Growth score: -36.0 points.

Per-capita income:

• 2008: $29,178

• 2003: $24,883

• 1993: $18,365

• 1983: $11,786

Income growth:

• 2003 to 2008 (5 years): 17.3 percent

• 1993 to 2008 (15 years): 58.9 percent

• 1983 to 2008 (25 years): 147.6 percent

Other stats

Metro population (2008): 672,388

Private-sector employment (June 2009): 159,600

Employment growth (2008 to 2009): -4.0 percent

4. Atlanta

Atlanta was flying high until the recession gave it a hard smack. Its unemployment rate has climbed perilously into double digits, and income growth has slowed dramatically. Atlanta’s PCI has expanded just 15.1 percent since 2003. Only four markets have done worse. Growth score: -35.0 points.

Per-capita income:

• 2008: $37,655

• 2003: $32,724

• 1993: $22,887

• 1983: $12,850

Income growth:

• 2003 to 2008 (5 years): 15.1 percent

• 1993 to 2008 (15 years): 64.5 percent

• 1983 to 2008 (25 years): 193.0 percent

Other stats

Metro population (2008): 5,376,285

Private-sector employment (June 2009): 1,968,900

Employment growth (2008 to 2009): -6.4 percent

5. Toledo, Ohio

Toledo is in the heart of the Midwest’s automotive belt, once the ticket to prosperity. No longer. Toledo has lost 31,900 jobs in the past five years, and income levels are stagnant. Only Provo, Utah, and Detroit have posted five-year PCI growth rates slower than Toledo’s 13.7 percent. Growth score: -33.5 points.

Per-capita income:

• 2008: $33,856

• 2003: $29,785

• 1993: $21,257

• 1983: $12,631

Income growth:

• 2003 to 2008 (5 years): 13.7 percent

• 1993 to 2008 (15 years): 59.3 percent

• 1983 to 2008 (25 years): 168.0 percent

Other stats

Metro population (2008): 649,104

Private-sector employment (June 2009): 252,000

Employment growth (2008 to 2009): -8.5 percent

6. Bakersfield, California

Here’s another interior California metro struggling with a recessionary economy. Only eight of the nation’s 100 largest markets have PCIs below $30,000. Bakersfield is in that unhappy group, and it’s also among the 17 markets with five-year income growth rates below 19 percent. Growth score: -31.7 points.

Per-capita income:

• 2008: $27,713

• 2003: $23,309

• 1993: $17,386

• 1983: $12,082

Income growth:

• 2003 to 2008 (5 years): 18.9 percent

• 1993 to 2008 (15 years): 59.4 percent

• 1983 to 2008 (25 years): 129.4 percent

Other stats

Metro population (2008): 800,458

Private-sector employment (June 2009): 172,800

Employment growth (2008 to 2009): -3.2 percent

7. Dayton, Ohio

Dayton is just 150 miles from Toledo, and its story is remarkably similar. The downturn in heavy manufacturing has harmed both markets. Dayton’s midyear unemployment rate was a steep 12.1 percent. Its income growth rate, on the other hand, has been a sluggish 15.0 percent since 2003. Growth score: -30.6 points.

Per-capita income:

• 2008: $34,724

• 2003: $30,196

• 1993: $21,048

• 1983: $12,549

Income growth:

• 2003 to 2008 (5 years): 15.0 percent

• 1993 to 2008 (15 years): 65.0 percent

• 1983 to 2008 (25 years): 176.7 percent

Other stats

Metro population (2008): 836,544

Private-sector employment (June 2009): 319,300

Employment growth (2008 to 2009): -4.4 percent

8. Fresno, California

Back to California. Fresno is yet another victim of the state’s economic dive. It has lost 10,200 jobs since mid-2008, pushing unemployment to 15.2 percent. Raises are scarce for those workers lucky enough to still have jobs. PCI has grown just 17 percent in Fresno in five years. Growth score: -30.6 points.

Per-capita income:

• 2008: $28,614

• 2003: $24,450

• 1993: $17,942

• 1983: $11,551

Income growth:

• 2003 to 2008 (5 years): 17.0 percent

• 1993 to 2008 (15 years): 59.5 percent

• 1983 to 2008 (25 years): 147.7 percent

Other stats

Metro population (2008): 909,153

Private-sector employment (June 2009): 223,900

Employment growth (2008 to 2009): -4.4 percent

9. Greensboro, North Carolina

The recession has hit Greensboro with unexpected force, slamming the brakes on income growth. Its PCI of $34,263 is only 62.1 percent larger now than in 1993. Only six U.S. markets have experienced slower expansion during that span, including Provo, Toledo, and four metros in California. Growth score: -29.5 points.

Per-capita income:

• 2008: $34,263

• 2003: $28,756

• 1993: $21,136

• 1983: $11,942

Income growth:

• 2003 to 2008 (5 years): 19.2 percent

• 1993 to 2008 (15 years): 62.1 percent

• 1983 to 2008 (25 years): 186.9 percent

Other stats

Metro population (2008): 705,684

Private-sector employment (June 2009): 303,500

Employment growth (2008 to 2009): -6.3 percent

10. Phoenix

Phoenix seemed golden until real estate prices hit the skids. Jobs began disappearing—135,100 in the past year—and incomes started shrinking. Phoenix’s PCI slipped 1.4 percent from 2007 to 2008, the nation’s worst one-year loss. The only other place to drop more than 1 percent was Boise. Growth score: -29.0 points.

Per-capita income:

• 2008: $34,675

• 2003: $29,343

• 1993: $19,724

• 1983: $12,810

Income growth:

• 2003 to 2008 (5 years): 18.2 percent

• 1993 to 2008 (15 years): 75.8 percent

• 1983 to 2008 (25 years): 170.7 percent

Other stats

Metro population (2008): 4,281,899

Private-sector employment (June 2009): 1,492,900

Employment growth (2008 to 2009): -8.3 percent


G. Scott Thomas is projects editor for Buffalo Business First.

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