Unemployment Up? Great!
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But Resler also is in the camp that a sharp spike lower could move the market closer to capitulation.
"That accelerates the process of moving toward the point of correction," he says. "If we get down to subsistence levels of living the next move is going to be up. When people start saying it can't get any worse, that's good news."
News Blues
At this point, the prevailing sentiment is that things in fact can get worse.
As if there wasn't enough to worry about in the employment picture, the perils of General Motors have added more concern. Should the automaker fail—auditors are questioning the company's ability to survive—that could create a swath of job losses not just at GM but in all the ancillary businesses that count on the company for survival.
"If the unemployment number is substantially better than expected that would normally cause the market to rise," says Michael Kresh, president of M.D. Kresh Financial Services in Islandia, New York. "But in lieu of General Motors possibly declaring bankruptcy, whatever that unemployment number is it's going to be totally off the wall if General Motors is shutting down."
Kresh takes a longer view in investing, and he says a combination of factors have him believing that now is a good time to be buying stocks, regardless of daily gyrations.
In fact, he's putting money into the undervalued companies, a group in which he places CNBC.com-parent General Electric as well as Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway.
"I try to ignore the overall information that causes the market to move on a day-to-day basis," he says. "But you cannot ignore the unemployment data because we have to see that get better before we have any clues that we're going to get through this recession."
Finding hope in that number could be a difficult endeavor anytime soon.
"If the numbers come in and it looks really good, there could be some feeling that maybe we're close to a bottom," Goldberg says. "My forecast is much more bearish, but I don't have a crystal ball."
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